SKU: 43160663971

勝算:不再靠運氣!從機率、賽局到AI,解鎖預測與決策的科學(二版)

Sale price$107.10 Regular price$119.00
Save 10%

Pay in installments of $29.75 with ShopPay, AfterPay and Klarna

Shipping Estimate
USA
  • USA
  • CAN

Ships within 48 hours · Estimated delivery Aug 25 - Aug 30

Promo Codes Available:

For Your Every Summer RSVP, with Code: SUMMER15

Description

勝算:不再靠運氣!從機率、賽局到AI,解鎖預測與決策的科學(二版): : Adam Kucharski London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine20122016 DiscoveryBBC1110

作者: 亞當・庫查司基  |  譯者: 甘錫安


       
從「賽局理論」約翰・馮紐曼到《他是賭神,更是股神》愛德華.索普,
博奕的魔力吸引了古往今來各領域的頂尖腦袋, 
他們的研究成果,對於理解運氣和聰明決策有何啟發?
又點出我們解讀各種現象時,有哪一些常見的盲點?
———《數學大觀念》作者亞瑟‧班傑明口碑力挺!———
 
  長久以來,各領域的頂尖頭腦都深受博奕吸引,他們不斷挑戰預測的極限,探究秩序與混沌的分界,以揭曉「機會」背後的學問。從賽局理論、混沌理論、統計學、心理學、物理學、經濟學乃至人工智慧,都因「賭」而拓展了探索的疆界。
 
  我們常用「運氣」和「技巧」截然劃分事情的成因,其實兩者的界線並非涇渭分明。了解賭的科學,有助於洞察普遍的判斷盲點,更睿智地權衡風險與報酬,從而做出好的決策。
 
  ●懂博奕,你會更洞察盲點
  ○賭場改用多達六副牌擾亂算牌客,為何效果適得其反?
  ○研究放射性衰變與大腦神經元活動的「卜瓦松過程」與足球比賽何干?
  ○為何有些投注公司反其道而行,樂於吸引精明賭客來投注?
  ○投注業者改變賠率不是為了符合結果的真實機率,那是為啥?
  
  ●懂博奕,你會更了解投資
  ○為何股票市場「大變化後面往往還會出現大變化」,反之亦然?
  ○交易機器人崛起後,金融市場的哪些現象你尤其該審慎解讀?
  ○購買不同產業多家公司的股票,投資組合多樣性為何仍然不夠?
  ○投資領域的「基本分析法」,要注意什麼盲點?
  ○購買擔保債券憑證時,要避免什麼錯誤假設?
 
  ●懂博奕,你會更善於決策
  ○機會賽局中常見的「馬可夫鏈」,如何有助於尋找隱含資訊?
  ○撲克牌是許多生活實際狀況的完美縮影,因為它試圖處理缺漏的資訊。
  ○賽局未達到最佳結果時,參與者的決定不會趨向平衡,而會大幅震盪。
  ○參與者易失誤或得在賽局中學習時,賽局理論不是找出最佳策略的好方法……
 
  ●懂博奕,你會更過好人生
  ○為什麼選擇最簡單的解釋,往往反而明智? 
  ○為何最快的解決方法,有時像在走回頭路?
  ○人性偏誤會導致我們誤判賽事的哪些方面?
  ○優秀的機器人程式不能只有蠻力,還要懂心理學才行。(更詳盡的介紹請參閱目錄的各章引文)



作者

亞當‧庫查司基(Adam Kucharski)
 
  亞當・庫查司基為劍橋大學數學博士,現為倫敦衛生與熱帶醫學院(London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)傳染病流行病學教授,從事社會行為與免疫學等領域的大規模研究,曾因研究伊波拉病毒和茲卡病毒等全球性傳染病,而親赴太平洋群島多座村落與拉丁美洲多間醫院,進行田野調查;此外他也開發開放原始碼軟體,致力於利用數據和分析來提升因應流行病的能力。庫查司基長年為多家媒體撰寫科普文章,作品散見於《連線》、《金融時報》、《新科學人》、《科學美國人》、《泰晤士報》,以及《觀察家報》等刊物,並曾分別於2012年與2016年榮獲「惠康科普著作獎」與「羅莎琳‧富蘭克林獎」,其最新著作《傳染力法則》(行路出版)則獲《泰晤士報》、《衛報》與《金融時報》評選為年度科學圖書。
 
譯者
 
甘錫安
 
  由科學界踏入「譯界」,現為專職譯者。曾擔任Discovery頻道與資訊雜誌編譯,現仍為《科學人》與《BBC知識》等雜誌翻譯。書籍譯作包括《品嘗的科學》(合譯)、《決斷的演算:預測、分析與好決定的11堂邏輯課》、《暗池:人工智慧如何顛覆股市生態》、《成分迷思:解讀健康新聞的10堂通識課》、《因果革命:人工智慧的大未來》等書。住在有山有海有美食的台灣頭基隆,熱愛吸收各類知識,正努力朝「全方位譯人」的目標邁進。
Shipping Notes
  • Free Standard Shipping on $100+ Orders to the USA.
  • Except Preorder products are shipped in 48 hours.
  • Delivery to the USA:
  1. Standard Shipping : 3-10 business days
  • If time is of the essence, please consider selecting expedited delivery for faster service.
Exchange/Return Notes
  • We offer a 30-day return/exchange service after receiving.
  • Final sale items are not eligible for returns or exchanges.
  • To process your return/exchange, please contact us at [email protected]
  • Please click here for more details>>> Return & Exchange Policy
SKU: 43160663971

Discover Niche Categories That Outsell

Top-Converting Item to Boost Your Average Order

4.1 ★★★★★
Based on 22 reviews
Sort
Highest Rating
Newest First
Oldest First
Product Reviews
B
Verified Purchase
BB
Alexandria, US
★★★★★ 3
Works but will Dry Out Your Skin
Size: 6 Ounce (Pack of 1)
I am a swim instructor at an outdoor pool and this stuff DOES work. I can apply it at the beginning of a 5 hour shift and while I have experienced light tanning it has protected against burning completely without reapplication. The white cast is significant though I don't mind it aesthetically, I know its there for protection . It does rub off on things though so consider yourself warned. Major Con: it is incredibly drying, and the soap needed to scrub it off is A LOT. That coupled with chlorine is a lot for my skin . Still on my sunscreen journey.
WAS THIS REVIEW HELPFUL?YesReportShare
Reviewed in the United States on May 4, 2026
A
Verified Purchase
Aaron Wright
Whiting, US
★★★★★ 5
Protected Our Skin and Smells Good
Size: 6 Ounce (Pack of 1)
I love this stuff! My husband and I bought it as a last minute grab for our honeymoon and it was well worth it! I'm very sensitive to the sun AND to sunscreens, so I needed something with simple ingredients that would also protect my skin without breaking me out. This not only kept away the burning rash I get from the sun, but protected my husband and I from any sunburn at all. It worked not only in dry conditions, but it stayed on for hours after we swam in the ocean. We also liked the fact that it smelled herbal, almost like pizza/Italian seasoning. That didn't bother us because we both hate the smell of most sunscreens. If you have sensitive skin or are looking for a more natural product, I highly recommend this!
WAS THIS REVIEW HELPFUL?YesReportShare
Reviewed in the United States on March 25, 2026
S
Verified Purchase
Stephanie
Massapequa, US
★★★★★ 5
Great reef-safe, easy-to-apply sunscreen (comparison of three ThinkSport products)
Size: 6 Ounce (Pack of 1)
I will start by saying that I am used to traditional non-mineral sunscreens and tend to only buy physical/mineral-based sunscreens when I'm going to be in a tropical ocean and need something reef-safe, though more and more kids sunscreens are shifting to mineral-based. After quite a bit of research I settled on ThinkSport for my family's recent trip to Hawaii, and I'm very pleased with it. I brought and used three types of Thinksport sunscreen: Thinksport Kids lotion (yellow/orange and teal squeeze bottle), Thinksport adult lotion (Black, white, and orange squeeze bottle), and Thinksport adult spray (black, white and orange spray bottle). All protected us from sunburn and rubbed in to be invisible as long as skin was dry and free of visible hair (visible whiteness persisted around my husbands facial stubble and chest hair). The only difference between the kids lotion versus the adult lotion is scent--the kids version has a fruitier, more tropical but not-too-strong scent (possibly coconut and something else? it was hard to identify) that I found unobjectionable (though one if my kids wasn't a fan), and the adult lotion had a lighter, less sweet, more citrus-y scent (my son though maybe lime and mint, but I'm not sure that's accurate) that I LOVE. The adult spray had no discernible scent, so I suspect the kids spray might be fairly unscented as well. The easiest to apply by far was the spray--it sprays on white, but feels very light, rubs in easily, and becomes invisible quickly. I was a little worried about whether it could possibly be effective given how light and thin it felt, but it was! The lotions weren't thick for a lotion (but much thicker than the spray) and went on easily, but took more rubbing in to disappear than the spray (this is consistent with my experience with lotion vs spray in traditional sunscreens as well). Invisibility was harder to get after a second or third application or when skin was damp, but all-in-all I found all three Thinksport products to be superior to other mineral-based sunscreens I have tried in the past. In the future I'll probably buy the adult thinksport spray for my kids and husband (who all much prefer a spray-on sunscreen) and the adult thinksport lotion for myself (because I love the scent and don't mind rubbing it in).
WAS THIS REVIEW HELPFUL?YesReportShare
Reviewed in the United States on April 17, 2023
A
Verified Purchase
ALC NJ
Charlottesville, US
★★★★★ 5
Dependable sun protection for active days outdoors
Size: 6 Ounce (Pack of 1)
I like how this sunscreen provides reliable broad-spectrum protection and holds up well during outdoor activities. The zinc oxide formula gives me peace of mind, and I appreciate that it's water resistant and reef-safe. It applies smoothly for a mineral sunscreen and stays on effectively during sports, swimming, and long days in the sun. Overall, it's a trustworthy option for anyone looking for strong sun protection.
WAS THIS REVIEW HELPFUL?YesReportShare
Reviewed in the United States on June 8, 2026
J
Verified Purchase
Judy Perez
New York, US
★★★★★ 4
Clean product
Size: 3 Ounce (Pack of 1)
I only gave it 4 stars because of the smell. Of course it’s sunscreen so it’s going to have a chemical smell but this smell is just too strong for me. Other then that, it’s a great sunscreen. Does take some more rubbing in and be carful to rub it in really good or you’ll have white streaks all over your face. Leaves a bit of a white cast. You don’t need much.
WAS THIS REVIEW HELPFUL?YesReportShare
Reviewed in the United States on April 12, 2026

recommand products