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Description
The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a New Section: "on Robustness and Fragility"The most influential book of the past seventy five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we don't know, now with a new section called "On Robustness and Fragility." A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The
The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we don't know, now with a new section called "On Robustness and Fragility." A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a landmark book--itself a black swan.Binding Type: Hardcover
Publisher: Random House
Published: 04/17/2007
ISBN: 9781400063512
Pages: 366
Weight: 1.49lbs
Size: 9.21h x 6.47w x 1.25d
Review Citations: Booklist 03/15/2007 pg. 9
Library Journal 04/15/2007 pg. 94
Time 05/21/2007 pg. 89
New York Times 04/22/2007 pg. 24
Books & Culture 09/01/2007 pg. 23
Vanity Fair 03/01/2008 pg. 232
Discover 08/01/2008 pg. 74
Publishers Weekly Best Books 03/23/2009 pg. 22
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4.1 ★★★★★
Based on 11 reviews
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Product Reviews
★★★★★ 5
The Only SPF My Skin Will Tolerate!
Style: 4 Fl Oz (Pack of 1)
After 20 rounds of radiation, I was given a list of exactly four things I could put on my face--things like water and Vaseline. Of course, I was also instructed to wear SPF in "all visible light." However, finding a sunscreen my skin could tolerate proved to be a challenge, as even those made with clean ingredients, marketed for babies, and/ or claiming to be hypoallergenic resulted in hot, angry rashes. Price point also didn't matter; I tried everything from drugstore to premium brands.
Thankfully, when this product came on the market, my dermatologist suggested I try it. I've been wearing it ever since. It IS thick so I usually rub any remaining face moisturizer into my palms and then add the Sunscreen, rubbing and warming it between my palms to make it more easily spreadable. Then I press it onto the skin on my face with my palms and fingers--I don't like to pull or tug too much at the skin on my face. At first, there is a visible white cast, but it disappears within a couple of minutes.
If I'm really in a hurry, now I can mix a tiny bit of my foundation into the sunscreen so that it spreads faster and I can move on from the white cast faster--I know I lose some sun protection factor that way, but my derm says I also gain some protection in the tinting, so it's okay. The important thing is that I get it on in whatever time I have.
I'm just grateful to have found something that doesn't upset my crazy-sensitive skin! Wishing all you sensitive beauties protected fun in the sun...
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Reviewed in the United States on March 18, 2026
★★★★★ 4
Good sun protection without chemicals, without a high price.
Style: 4 Fl Oz (Pack of 1)
I've bought this a couple of times. I feel like it gives excellent sun protection at a reasonable price. I mostly use it on my face. When I first apply it, it looks a little white and pasty, but it doesn't take long for that to go away. It's a little greasy at first , but I have dry skin, so I it absorbs in. I like using a sunscreen that doesn't have a lot of chemicals. This works well while using ingredients I feel good about putting on my skin.
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Reviewed in the United States on July 13, 2025
★★★★★ 5
A very effective sunscreen at a very reasonable price
Style: 4 Fl Oz (Pack of 1)
This sunscreen is very reasonably priced but would I love about this product more than anything is how effective it is at protecting your skin and will be my first go to when purchasing a sunscreen, and for a man, it is best to be clean shaven when using, and not to put on too much as it will make you look like Casper the ghost if you do
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Reviewed in the United States on May 30, 2026
★★★★★ 5
No scent and blends in surprisingly well.
Style: 4 Fl Oz (Pack of 1)
Eucerin 50 (Sensitive Mineral - Zinc Oxide)
Expiration date: Sept. 2026
Purchase date: May 2025
The most noticeable ingredients in the sunscreen are zinc oxide, mineral oil, and a yellow tint. The sunscreen is not scented which is always a plus. The yellow tint was not noticeable on my deep bronze skin. My skin is sensitive to many chemical products but not this one. The product blended in well into my skin both when dry and when using a moisturizing toner. There was not a white cast after giving it a few minutes to be absorbed by the skin. Most oil-based sunscreens leave my skin feeling greasy when perspiring but the Eucerin 50 was a pleasant surprise. The perspiration felt normal and not greasy.
Overall, I am very pleased with the product. It is great for active people who normally sweat away sunscreen. Eucerin 50 left my skin feeling very soft after washing it off. This is the first mineral oil-based sunscreen that I have found to be satisfactory. I believe it to be a good value at the twenty-dollar or less price range.
Warning!: It can stain your clothing. Do not store oil-based sunscreens in a hot environment like your automobile. The ingredients will separate.
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Reviewed in the United States on May 31, 2025
★★★★★ 5
I've tried MANY sunscreens. This is the best for the money you can buy.
Style: 4 Fl Oz (Pack of 1)
I have a section in my closet reserved for the graves of past sunscreens. And there are A LOT. Reasons why this is the best for price point:
1. No white cast. Maybe 2%. Yes, there is a bad a white cast when you first put it on, especially if your face is still a tad damp from washing. But it almost completely disappears within minutes. And this is coming from someone who is of Southeast Asian descent, and currently have a natural a tan this time of year. I get tan because I don't apply it every 2 hours as recommended. I only use it when I'm working out outside and the sun is blasting my face. I live where it gets very sunny.
2. NOT oily. I have super oily skin and so many of my sunscreens makes my face more of an oil slick than normal. I have matiffying ones, that work well, but it gets expensive.
3. Fragrance free! I prefer to use as many fragrance-free products as possible.
4. DOESN'T STING EYES. I'm surprised at how many "sunscreens for the face" are out there that absolutely sting my eyes into waterworks.
5. Price-point. A giant tube (for the face) for all that? It will take me a very long time to go through it. For my body, I use cheaper fragrance-free mineral sunscreens, or sunscreens I want to get rid of.
6. I use a moderate strength prescription of Tretinoin, and those who know, know that without sun protection, the skin can get burned and irritated extremely easily. Not me! And I use Tretinoin every single night.
I'm so glad Eucerin made this, I hope they never discontinue this!
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Reviewed in the United States on July 28, 2022