SKU: 44923149033

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't

Sale price$15.30 Regular price$17.00
Save 10%

Pay in installments of $4.25 with ShopPay, AfterPay and Klarna

Shipping Estimate
USA
  • USA
  • CAN

Ships within 48 hours · Estimated delivery Sep 22 - Sep 27

Promo Codes Available:

For Your Every Summer RSVP, with Code: SUMMER15

Description

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don'tUPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER "One of the more momentous books of the decade." The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012

UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER

"One of the more momentous books of the decade."--The New York Times Book Review

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger--all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight.

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox" The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good--or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary--and dangerous--science.

Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.

Binding Type: Paperback
Publisher: Penguin Books
Published: 02/03/2015
ISBN: 9780143125082
Pages: 576
Weight: 1.00lbs
Size: 8.30h x 5.40w x 1.10d

Review Citations: New York Times Book Review 03/01/2015 pg. 28
Shipping Notes
  • Free Standard Shipping on $100+ Orders to the USA.
  • Except Preorder products are shipped in 48 hours.
  • Delivery to the USA:
  1. Standard Shipping : 3-10 business days
  • If time is of the essence, please consider selecting expedited delivery for faster service.
Exchange/Return Notes
  • We offer a 30-day return/exchange service after receiving.
  • Final sale items are not eligible for returns or exchanges.
  • To process your return/exchange, please contact us at [email protected]
  • Please click here for more details>>> Return & Exchange Policy
SKU: 44923149033

Discover Niche Categories That Outsell

Top-Converting Item to Boost Your Average Order

4.2 ★★★★★
Based on 11 reviews
Sort
Highest Rating
Newest First
Oldest First
Product Reviews
C
Verified Purchase
Claire
Battle Creek, US
★★★★★ 5
The Pickle Means Business
This toy is a godsend. The price is unbeatable in comparison to Petsmart/1-800Petsupplies and even Chewy. This was one of many christmas gifts for our high chewer Aussie and our Border Collie mix, they opened it early like all dogs do. We lovingly nicknamed this toy 'the pickle' and the dogs know if we tell them to go get their pickle, they bring it to us to fill with treats! The pickle is a perfect toy for if you won't be home for awhile, or if your dog needs to be occupied for an hour or two. We fill it with peanut butter and dog food, then freeze and it makes a perfect long lasting toy. My only single complaint to think about is that this toy picks up fur and dirt like mad. It seems the rubber is just a magnet for gross stuff on your floors. Our solution is to ask the dogs to bring us the pickle whenever we run the dishes, and throw it in the dishwasher!
WAS THIS REVIEW HELPFUL?YesReportShare
Reviewed in the United States on December 22, 2017
D
Verified Purchase
D.E.R.
Cuba, US
★★★★★ 5
Perfect to distract and engage my dogs
Color: Purple, Size: Medium (Pack of 1), Color: Purple, Size: Medium (Pack of 1)
These are quite possibly the best thing ever invented for dogs. They are durable, of high quality, easy to wash, and my dogs love them. These are perfect if I need everyone to be quiet for a phone call or if there is a thunderstorm. It helps distract and engage them, and bonus points: my dogs haven't been able to destroy these yet! Always make sure you measure before you buy something! 💜💜💜
WAS THIS REVIEW HELPFUL?YesReportShare
Reviewed in the United States on October 2, 2020
R
Verified Purchase
Richard S Hall
Pawtucket, US
★★★★★ 5
Postage dog treat
Color: Purple, Size: Medium (Pack of 1)
My dog loves them. He gets one each day after his walk. Sturdy, but had to replace in 6-12 months when breaks the staff off because off the chewing
WAS THIS REVIEW HELPFUL?YesReportShare
Reviewed in the United States on May 10, 2024
M
Verified Purchase
Myke
Cuba, US
★★★★★ 5
Recommended
Color: Purple, Size: Medium (Pack of 1)
Much better than the smaller versions for my aggressive chewer. For the smaller would they’d bite the sides and start choking on small pieces BUT! Not this one, this one has withheld hours upon hours and has been used repeatedly. It’s much more durable and I love it. The treat rings aren’t expensive for a bunch of them too which is great!
WAS THIS REVIEW HELPFUL?YesReportShare
Reviewed in the United States on May 31, 2025
J
Verified Purchase
Jeanette S.
San Leandro, US
★★★★★ 4
Great toy, not for strong chewers
Color: Orange, Size: Medium
Our Lab Stella loves her "doughnut" treats she gets with this toy! It's a great design, between the rawhide treats that aren't too much for your dog, the nubby teeth cleaner wheels and the hard plastic ends. We're on our 4th one as the hard plastic gets tooth marks & our Stella starts trying to bite off pieces of the plastic. Once it's too chewed, we throw it out and get another one. Not super durable for strong chewers if you intend it to last a long time, but great features if you keep getting new, unchewed ones!
WAS THIS REVIEW HELPFUL?YesReportShare
Reviewed in the United States on November 19, 2020

recommand products